Video games & Steam wishlist: your wish list
The industry's reliance on digital distribution platforms has never been greater. Steam reigns supreme in the PC market, dictating the rules of an ecosystem in which publishers and studios must learn to navigate in order to survive. This relationship, however beneficial it may be in terms of visibility, raises questions about sales predictability, particularly through the key indicator of wishlists.
-
-
Recent data collected by GameDiscoverCo on Steam releases from August to October 2024 could challenge some assumptions about wishlist conversion rates. Lower than expected, the median conversion rate for the first week is around 10.5%, suggesting a monthly rate of approximately 13-14%. Even more concerning, the disparities are widening rapidly: games in the 75th percentile convert at only 4.8%, while those in the 90th percentile reach a meager 1.9%.
A misleading indicator of success
However, some titles defy the statistics. Several of 2024's biggest hits, such as Dragon Ball Sparking! Zero and Dragon Age: The Veilguard, demonstrate that a combination of franchise recognition and polished execution can generate exceptional conversion rates. Others, like Liar's Bar and Karate Survivor, benefited from unexpected virality thanks to streamers, proving that a game's success doesn't depend solely on the volume of wishlists.
These figures underscore an undeniable reality: the video game market is more than ever driven by hit titles. In 2024, the five biggest hits on Steam alone generated $2.22 billion. Faced with this concentration of revenue and increased competition from older games sold at reduced prices, studios undoubtedly need to rethink their approach to wishlists, no longer seeing them as an absolute indicator of success, but as one element among others to consider in their launch strategy.