Video games & Steam wishlist: make a wish
The industry’s reliance on digital distribution platforms has never been greater. Steam reigns supreme in the PC market, dictating the rules of an ecosystem that publishers and studios must learn to navigate in order to survive. Whilst this relationship may be beneficial in terms of visibility, it raises questions about the predictability of sales, particularly as measured by the key indicator of wishlists.
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Recent data collected by GameDiscoverCo on Steam releases from August to October 2024 could call into question some assumptions about the conversion of wishlists into sales. Lower than expected, the median stands at around 10.5 per cent for the first week, suggesting a monthly rate of around 13–14 per cent. Even more worrying is that the gaps are widening rapidly: games in the 75th percentile convert at just 4.8 per cent, whilst those in the 90th percentile plateau at a meagre 1.9 per cent.
A misleading indicator of success
However, some titles defy the statistics. A few of the big hits of 2024, such as Dragon Ball Sparking! Zero and Dragon Age: The Veilguard, demonstrate that a combination of franchise recognition and careful execution can generate exceptional conversion rates. Others, such as Liar’s Bar or Karate Survivor, have benefited from unexpected virality thanks to streamers, proving that a title’s success does not depend solely on the number of wishlists.
These figures highlight an inescapable reality: the video game market is driven more than ever by blockbusters. In 2024, the five biggest hits on Steam generated $2.22 billion between them. Faced with this concentration of revenue and increased competition from older games sold at reduced prices, studios undoubtedly need to rethink their approach to wishlists, viewing them no longer as an absolute indicator of success, but as one factor amongst many to be taken into account in their launch strategy.